News

According to Finnish public broadcaster YLE: The Finnish Defense Forces have closed the southern airspace near the Russian border due to concerns about the inadvertent entry of drones.

According to RIA Novosti: Russia attacked a ship carrying military supplies to Ukraine in the Black Sea direction of the Mykolaiv region of Ukraine.

Barclays (BCS.N) announced a total capital distribution of 2.3 billion pounds to shareholders.

Barclays (BCS.N): Raised its 2026 group revenue target to about 31.5 billion pounds. We remain committed and confident to achieve all financial targets and capital allocation targets for 2026 and 2028.

Barclays (BCS.N): Revenue in the second quarter was 8.34 billion pounds, pre-tax profit was 3.25 billion pounds, and share income was 0.167 pounds.

US Geological Survey: A 5.8-magnitude earthquake occurred in Puerto Madero, Mexico.

**Dovish Faction** 1. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: It's too early to judge the impact of the war on inflation; price shocks can be temporarily ignored. The longer oil prices continue to rise, the more likely we are to consider adjusting our risk assessment strategy. (Permanent voting member during term) **Neutral** 1. Federal Reserve Governor Powell: We are currently at the high end of the neutral interest rate range or a slightly restrictive level. The labor market is showing increasing signs of stabilization, while inflation is somewhat unruly, so maintaining the status quo may be appropriate. (Permanent voting member during term) 2. Federal Reserve Governor Williams: There are good reasons to believe that inflation has peaked and will gradually decline in the coming quarters; he has no particular view on the policy direction. 3. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: Current monetary policy is well-positioned to continue supporting the labor market while allowing inflation to fall back toward the 2% target. (Permanent voting member during term) 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Barr: We are trying to determine how the energy shock will affect inflation; it is unclear whether artificial intelligence will reduce or exacerbate income and wealth inequality. (Permanent voting member during term) 5. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: I need to see data showing a sustained decline for several consecutive months to be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction. If core CPI continues to "feverish," an interest rate hike will be needed in the short term. 6. Federal Reserve's Paulson: The market has accepted the scenario of interest rates remaining unchanged for an extended period, and it has also accepted the scenario of potentially needing rate hikes, which is healthy; we see no structural changes in inflation, only a series of shocks. (2026 voting member) 7. Federal Reserve's Daly: There is a scenario where we must deal with inflation that is more stubborn than expected; there is also a scenario where economic growth cannot be sustained, or investment slows down. (2027 voting member) 1. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh: Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect the underlying inflation situation, and we are not satisfied with any inflation indicator. We will review tools including the balance sheet and interest rates to determine whether adjustments are needed to address inflation. 2. Federal Reserve Governor Cook: A prudent approach is to give inflation some more time to observe its evolution. If we don't see signs of inflation falling soon, I'm prepared to take action. (Permanent voting member during term) 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari: I expect one rate hike in 2026 and no change in 2027. In March, I predicted one rate cut before the end of the year. (2026 voting member) 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak: For the first time, businesses have told me they believe the Fed needs to take measures to curb inflation; it's also the first time consumers have expressed growing despair about not making ends meet. 5. Fed's Logan: The Fed should raise interest rates to address high inflation. While data suggests price increases are slowing, it's not enough to convince me inflation is back on target. (2026 voting member) 6. Fed's Barkin: Inflation remains significantly off target, restrictive policies are still necessary, and inflation may persist more strongly than expected. (2027 voting member) 7. Fed's Goolsby: June CPI data was good, but I don't want to overreact to a single month's data. I'd feel better if CPI data remained low for the next few months. (2027 voting member) 8. Fed's Schmid: Recent inflation data is encouraging, but it's too early to draw conclusions. I'm not used to assuming inflation shocks are likely temporary. (2028 Voting Member) 9. Federal Reserve's Mossala: Interest rates appear to be at or below the long-term neutral level. I would be concerned if we don't see inflation fall back in the next one or two quarters. (2028 Voting Member) 10. Federal Reserve's Collins: While this is not the most likely scenario, it is conceivable that some policy tightening would be needed to ensure that inflation returns to 2% in a timely and sustained manner. (2028 Voting Member)

Nasdaq futures fell 1.1% to hit daily lows, and S&P 500 futures fell nearly 0.4%

According to IRNA: Iran’s Foreign Minister held telephone talks with the Foreign Ministers of Oman and Saudi Arabia. While discussing the latest bilateral and regional developments, the two sides emphasized strengthening cooperation and advancing joint diplomatic efforts to maintain regional stability and relieve forced insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz due to the aggressive actions of the United States.

Ukrainian President Zelensky: I have arrived in the United States. The agenda includes meetings with President Trump, his team and those who can support our defense. Our top priorities are anti-ballistic missile defense and strategic cooperation with the United States.

Cursor: Launches Cursor Start program in India, offering developers access to Grok 4.5 and Composer for ₹649 per month.

Bank of Japan: Core CPI after excluding special factors rose 2.7% year-on-year in June, and the increase was 2.7% in May. Core CPI, which excludes special factors, rose 2.0% year-on-year in June, compared with 2.1% in May.

Safran Group: Raise its revenue growth forecast for 2026 to mid-double digit growth (previously low to mid-double digit growth). It raised its forecast for recurring operating profit in 2026 to 6.4 billion euros to 6.5 billion euros (previously 6.1 billion euros to 6.2 billion euros).

Safran Group's adjusted revenue in the first half of 2026 was 17.57 billion euros, higher than market expectations of 17.47 billion euros. Adjusted recurring operating profit in the first half was 3.24 billion euros, higher than market expectations of 3.06 billion euros. Adjusted net profit in the first half was 1.92 billion euros.

Mercedes-Benz Group revenue in the second quarter was 32.1 billion euros, compared with 33.2 billion euros in the same period last year. Second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were 1.5 billion euros, compared with 1.3 billion euros in the same period last year.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: Lowered its price target for Newmont Mining (NEM.N) from $175 to $168.

Royal Bank of Canada: Cuts Tesla (TSLA.O) target price to $480 from $500.

India's NIFTY IT index rose 3%.

Traders said the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to boost the rupee. The Indian rupee rose 0.3% to 95.64 Indian rupees per dollar.

Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock: The housing market is a litmus test in terms of whether financial conditions are tightening.