News

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Berlin and will meet with German Chancellor Merz.

EU: Conditionally approves JD.com's acquisition of CECONOMY, Germany's largest consumer electronics group.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Rumors of a possible attack on Iran after the US election have not been confirmed.

Swiss National Bank President Schlegel: After a strong second quarter, Switzerland's GDP should grow moderately.

Swiss National Bank President Schlegel: Inflationary pressures in September were slightly higher than in June.

ECB Governing Council member Mollan: The ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond the energy sector.

JPMorgan Chase believes that the cooling of AI investment may not necessarily trigger a recession in the US economy. There are three main reasons: 1. US household net worth and cash reserves are at historical highs. Since the pandemic, household checking account balances have increased fivefold, and there is still room for household debt burdens; 2. Profit margins of US listed companies are at or near historical highs. Companies need to experience a significant contraction in profit margins before large-scale layoffs are likely; 3. AI is not a major driver of job growth. The impact of declining AI investment may primarily manifest as reduced capital expenditures and layoffs at large cloud service providers, rather than a comprehensive impact on employment and consumption. However, JPMorgan Chase also cautions that a stock market decline could affect household consumption through asset devaluation. Currently, the proportion of consumers using investment account assets to pay for consumption is increasing, which warrants attention.

A spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that both the United States and Iran are committed to the mediation process.

Intel (INTC.O) shares rose more than 3% in pre-market trading.

According to preliminary estimates from CORES, Spain's vehicle fuel consumption in September increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and by 4.9% compared to August.

The UK union Unite plans a 24-hour strike from 06:00 on November 4th to 05:59 on November 5th, 2026.

UK union Unite: Apache offshore platform workers escalate strike action.

Lufthansa CFO: Strong demand is expected in the fourth quarter, with revenue growth in double digits; we are confident in bookings.

1. **Legislative Side:** Trump to Become "Mr. Veto" to Increase Negotiation Bargaining Power. In a pre-election interview, Trump stated that if the Democrats control Congress, he might have to become "Mr. Veto." He indicated he would veto bills submitted by the Democrats "for one or two months" until they realized they were "wasting time" and compromised. 2. **Executive Side:** Plans to "Bypass Congress," Proactively Reviewing Unilateral Executive Actions. Sources revealed that since April, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Miller and Budget Director Vought have been working with the White House Counsel's Office to identify executive actions Trump could take on immigration, tariffs, housing costs, and federal spending without congressional approval. 3. **Budgetary Side:** Expanding Influence on Funding Implementation, Federal Appropriations Rules May Be a Breakthrough. Sources say that Vought, who oversees federal spending, is reviewing which priority projects can utilize previously allocated congressional funds. He also hopes to amend federal appropriations rules to give politically appointed officials greater say in deciding which government projects are eligible for funding. This could allow the White House to exert greater influence over federal spending without seeking congressional approval. 4. **Legal Defense:** Preemptive Measures to Address Congressional Investigations, Executive Privilege May Be a Key Tool. Sources say that White House lawyers have been instructing politically appointed officials and agency heads on how to respond to congressional inquiries, document retrieval requests, and subpoenas, reminding officials at all levels to be cautious in creating written records. It is reported that they also sought legal advice from the Department of Justice that could allow Trump to exercise executive privilege to shield his communications with his personal advisors from congressional scrutiny. 5. **Boundaries of Power: Exploring the Expansion of Power Boundaries, a "National Emergency" Could Be a Springboard.** ① Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the White House plans to seek legal advice from the Department of Justice to determine what Trump can do without congressional support and how to defend himself if these actions are challenged in court. White House Counsel Schaff and his team are reportedly also studying "what Trump can do independently within the bounds of the law, in which areas he can expand the boundaries of his power, and how to defend these decisions in court." ② Trump has repeatedly invoked the term "national emergency" in the past to expand his ability to act without congressional consent. While Congress can end these emergency declarations by vote, Trump can veto such measures. Overturning a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, but given the current situation, the Democrats are unlikely to have enough votes to override it. 6. Election Results: Leaving Room for Challenges to Vote Counting and Certification, or Replicating the 2020 Litigation Strategy. When asked before the election whether he would accept the midterm election results, Trump stated, "If the election is fair, I will (accept) it." Reports indicate that the Trump administration has adjusted its strategy, attempting to delay related lawsuits and investigations until after Election Day, intending to replicate his actions after his failed 2020 re-election bid: questioning the election results, refusing to recognize some ballots, and preventing final certification of the election results. 7. Personnel Issues: Early Pardons to Protect Allies, Post-Election "Purges" and Scapegoating. ① Democrats have indicated that if they regain control of either house of Congress, they will investigate Trump, his administration officials, and numerous allies. When asked on a podcast about the Democrats potentially targeting Musk or even nationalizing SpaceX, Trump called the rumors "just talk," but said that if the threats materialized, "we'll have to protect them." When asked if he would follow Biden's example and pardon government staff and allies early, Trump said, "If necessary, I would. I wouldn't hesitate at all." ② Reports indicate that as Republicans struggle to retain control of Congress, Trump is blaming senior aides and campaign advisors for the failure of his midterm election strategy; aides are also beginning to blame each other, attempting to absolve themselves of responsibility. The report states that if Democrats regain control of Congress, some officials may choose to resign to avoid facing months of congressional investigations.

Lufthansa CEO: Ticket prices will see a double-digit percentage increase, and this trend will continue.

The South African government announced that petrol prices will be reduced by 1 cent per liter starting November 4.

The Kremlin: The chief Russian negotiator for the Abu Dhabi talks will be Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal recently confirmed via satellite imagery that Iran has caused significant damage to U.S. military bases in the Middle East. In the first two weeks of the conflict, Iran damaged 13 U.S. military facilities in the region, affecting 119 buildings. This situation, coupled with depleted U.S. ammunition reserves, means that the scale and duration of any further military attack could be limited, and the U.S.'s ability to defend against an Iranian retaliation has also diminished. Military confrontation has already incurred high costs, and further escalation may not yield commensurate strategic gains. This may indicate a strengthening of diplomatic efforts (i.e., negotiations). (JPMorgan Chase)

Southbound capital saw a significant net inflow of HK$23.42 billion today. In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (TRX) and the Southern Hang Seng Technology Index saw net inflows of HK$11.518 billion and HK$1.948 billion respectively; Xiaomi Group-W saw the largest net outflow at HK$339 million. In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the TRX and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw net inflows of HK$4.989 billion and HK$2.384 billion respectively; Genscript Biotech-1000 saw the largest net outflow at HK$341 million.

The German Retail Federation (HDE) projects that real retail sales in Germany will grow by 1% in 2026, while nominal retail sales are expected to grow by 2% in 2026.