forex cross rate

RaboResearch points out that while energy prices have continued to rise recently, 5-year forward inflation expectations in the US and Europe remain largely consistent with central bank targets. The correlation between energy prices and long-term inflation pricing is weakening, and the market is currently willing to believe that central banks can anchor long-term inflation. This divergence can also be explained by another factor: long-term inflation expectations may become increasingly dominated by central bank credibility, fiscal policy, and institutional risks, with the weight of short-term oil price shocks decreasing accordingly. RaboResearch specifically mentions the "fiscal dominance" risk: once the market begins to doubt the central bank's ability to independently control inflation, long-term inflation pricing may experience a sudden institutional revaluation, and such changes typically do not occur linearly. For the market, the current stability of 5-year inflation is still a positive signal of policy credibility, but if energy prices remain high and fiscal risks rise simultaneously, whether long-term inflation expectations and term premiums continue to "blunt" will become a key observation point. At that time, the reaction of long-term US Treasury bonds to oil price and inflation shocks may reflect whether the market still believes in the inflation anchor more accurately than the monthly CPI itself.

The Eurozone's preliminary August CPI figure was 0.4%, compared to 0.20% in the previous month.

The Eurozone's core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, compared with 0% in the previous month.

The Eurozone unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, below the expected 6.3% and the previous figure revised from 6.30% to 6.4%.

The Eurozone's preliminary August CPI annual rate was 3.3%, in line with expectations and down from 2.90% previously.

The Eurozone's core CPI annual rate preliminary reading for August was 2.1%, below the expected 2.3% and the previous reading of 2.2%.