Technical Analysis: XAUUSD

XAUUSD fell sharply yesterday

On Monday, as the probability that the Fed will cut the interest rate declined, XAUUSD dropped and ended down 0.40%.

The expectation that the Fed will cut the interest rate in March declined

The market is increasingly uncertain on whether the Fed will start reducing the interest rate in March. The probability that the Fed will cut the interest rate in March fell to 48%, down from 81% last week, according to the data from the CME’s FedWatch.

Gold ETF holdings declined

As of January 19, the world’s largest Gold ETF——SPDR Gold Trust had 860.95 tonnes of gold, down 1.15 tonnes compared to yesterday.

The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term

the Chart of the Day

On the chart of the day, XAUUSD was prone to fluctuation. The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, KDJ went downwards after death cross occurred, showing XAUUSD will fall further. It will fall further with potential support at 1973 if it breaks below the support at 2005.

4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD was prone to fluctuation and declined. The bearish market trend prevailed. In terms of technical indicators, MACD moved below the zero axis, showing the bearish market trend prevailed. XAUUSD will fall further if it rebounds but is capped at 2038.

Key resistance: 2038, 2062

Key support: 2005, 1973

Generally speaking, as the expectation that the Fed will cut the interest rate decreased, and gold ETF holdings declined, XAUUSD is more likely to fall further in the short term.