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Analysis and Education>Technical Analysis: AUDUSD

Technical Analysis: AUDUSD

18.01.2024

AUDUSD fell for three consecutive days


On Wednesday, AUDUSD fell for three consecutive days and reached a one-month low.


Australian employment change declined in December


Australian Employment Change (December) fell from 61,500 to -65,100 Vs. 17,600 (forecast), according to the data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.


US retail sales was strong


US Retail Sales, m/m (December) increased from 0.3% to 0.6% Vs. 0.4% (forecast), according to the data from the US Department of Commerce. The probability that the Fed will reduce the interest rate fell to less than 60% after the US retail sales was announced, down 20 percents compared with the early 2023, according to the Fed’s fund rate futures.


Technically speaking, the bearish market trend prevailed in the short term


the Chart of the Day


On the chart of the day, AUDUSD continued falling. The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, KDJ went downwards after death cross occurred, showing the market trend is bearish. Investors should focus on whether AUDUSD will break through the support at 0.645. It will fall further with potential support at 0.640 if it breaks below the support at 0.645.


4-hour chart


On the 4-hour chart, AUDUSD was prone to fluctuation and declined. The bearish market trend prevailed in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, MACD went downwards after death cross occurred, showing AUDUSD will fall further.

 

Key resistance: 0.659, 0.665

Key support: 0.645, 0.640


Generally speaking, as Australian employment change declined and US economy remained resilient, AUDUSD may fall further in the short term.

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