News

Local officials say Russian drones attacked a cargo terminal in Mykolaiv, Ukraine.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly survey indicates that Japanese households expect prices to rise by an average of 10.1% in five years, with a median of 5.0%.

Traders say some banks have stopped quoting USD/IRB interbank forward rates after the Reserve Bank of India expanded the scope of foreign exchange risk reserves. Sources say the Indian foreign exchange risk reserve requirements do not apply to banks' market-making or trading operations.

Malaysian Trade Minister: Malaysia and the EU plan to sign a free trade agreement by the end of June 2027.

The USD-IRB forward premium fell after the Reserve Bank of India expanded its hedging restrictions.

1. Fear of the Situation Escalating Out of Control and Backlash Despite Saudi Arabia's intensified military operations, it remains difficult to reverse the Houthi advance around Taiz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While Iran welcomes the Houthis' pressure on Saudi Arabia and the resulting rise in oil prices, it also fears the conflict spiraling out of control. The Houthis are not Iran's puppets; they possess independent political ambitions and military decision-making power. If the Houthis corner Saudi Arabia and trigger larger-scale intervention from the US or Israel, Iran may be forced into a full-scale war it does not want to fight. 2. Transforming Yemen from a Military Burden into a Diplomatic Asset Iran is attempting to transform Yemen from a military burden into a diplomatic asset. Iran has long been accused of being the Houthis' backer, a detrimental label in diplomacy. By promoting dialogue between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, Iran is trying to repackage itself as "part of the problem" and "part of the solution," thereby strengthening its diplomatic position. 3. Seeking to Negotiate Regional Conflicts as a Package This is one of Iran's broader efforts to link regional conflicts together. The larger goal is to reach an informal non-aggression agreement between Iran and its allies and the United States and its regional partners. This requires ending hostilities on multiple fronts, including Yemen and Lebanon, rather than being limited to the US-Iran conflict. Iran's core message is that regional security is indivisible, and Saudi Arabia cannot enjoy security alone while Iran and its allies are still under military and economic pressure. 4. Capitalizing on Saudi Arabia's "Dependency Dilemma" Saudi Arabia is increasingly uneasy about its dependence on the United States, disappointed by the limited willingness of the US to intervene in Yemen, and unwilling to rely on the UAE again. Iran sees an opportunity to demonstrate that engaging with it can offer something that Saudi Arabia's traditional security partnerships have failed to provide. 5. Economic Calculations: Trading Yemen for Bargaining Advantages Iran is under immense pressure from the US blockade, while Gulf states, despite Iranian interference, are gradually resuming energy exports. Providing Saudi Arabia with an outlet out of Yemen could bring Iran influence far beyond the Yemeni battlefield, especially in negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a broader regional security architecture.

International Monetary Fund official: Global exposure to U.S. assets, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence, has reached an all-time high.

The People’s Bank of China said on Oct. 13 it has issued an administrative permit allowing Visa Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. to prepare a bank-card clearing institution. Visa must complete preparations within one year and may then apply to commence operations; the PBOC, together with the national financial regulator, will review the start-up application and, if approved, issue a bank-card clearing business license. Visa Information Technology (Beijing) is a foreign-invested enterprise established by Visa in China.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: The turning point in global bond market tolerance for government borrowing is difficult to predict, and I will be closely monitoring this.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Concerned about the ongoing supply shocks.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: The effects of the second round of events will not be seen until early next year.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: The UK's monetary policy is not that tight.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: The latest IMF forecast for the UK did not surprise me.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Multiple rounds of inflationary shocks are changing market behavior.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: The greater risk is not raising interest rates too early, but rather not being proactive enough in dealing with inflation.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: If we wait until the second-round effect appears, it will be too late.

Goldman Sachs: We believe that Russia's announced diesel release will have no significant impact on global diesel prices.

Goldman Sachs: We estimate that the potential release of 50 million barrels of diesel from the European strategic reserves will reduce wholesale diesel prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Europe by $11 per barrel.

IMF Chief Economist: Our message to the UK is to stick to the current path of fiscal consolidation.

IMF chief economist: Britain should continue to reduce its deficit.