News

According to the New York Times, the U.S. Central Command stated that more than 50,000 U.S. military personnel have been assigned to this war mission.

According to the New York Times: The latest estimates suggest that the U.S. Air Force has spent $7.6 billion to maintain the operation of dozens of fighter and bomber squadrons; the Navy has spent $1.5 billion to deploy more than 20 warships (including several aircraft carriers); and the Army has spent $2.1 billion to maintain its troop deployment in the region.

According to the New York Times, the U.S. Department of Defense told Congress last week that as of October 16, the cost of the war with Iran had risen to $47.1 billion, with bombs, missiles and other munitions accounting for more than 60% of the total cost.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: The range for the neutral interest rate estimate is wide, and there is always uncertainty in the related judgments.

Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization Ryomachi Akazawa: Currently, the rules-based free trade system is faltering. I thank all the committee members for actively conveying the voices from the front lines of business to APEC and for their efforts in maintaining and strengthening a free and fair trade and investment environment.

Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization Ryoma Akazawa: He held talks with APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) members Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Junichiro Ikeda, and others.

U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays: It was a pleasure to meet with the Australian Deputy Prime Minister; we work together to optimize the alliance to strengthen deterrence and achieve results.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: In the coming weeks, some inflation data, along with labor market data, will be important indicators.

Hong Kong-listed Junzheng Co., Ltd. (03223.HK) surged over 11%, with the company reporting a net profit of RMB 1.419 billion in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 2595.49%.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Discussed whether interest rates could rise above the level indicated by the Official Cash Rate (OCR) path.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Discussed the risk of a pullback in AI-related market assets.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Wage growth is below the level consistent with inflation reaching the target level.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Conditions for bringing inflation back to target remain favorable.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: The decision was based on the economic outlook, but market pricing was indeed taken into account.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Further interest rate hikes are expected at future meetings.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Further tightening of policy may be necessary, even into a restrictive range.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Agreed that policy tightening is likely to be needed, but this depends on economic performance.

The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds rose 4.0 basis points to 3.635%.

1. Potential dissenters: Cleveland Fed President Hammark, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all opposed maintaining interest rates at the July meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point hike. The final vote was 9-3. 2. Rabobank: Expects the Fed to maintain interest rates this time, but Hammark, Kashkari, and Logan may again vote against it, demanding an immediate rate hike. If this prediction comes true, the decision will repeat the 9-3 vote of July. 3. KPMG: Considers Logan a potential dissenter worth watching closely. She advocates for at least a 50 basis point increase, while Hammark and Kashkari have recently shown flexibility in the pace of policy adjustments, so they may not insist on an October rate hike. 4. **PIMCO:** In the September dot plot, some officials' forecasts suggested rate hikes at the remaining two meetings this year. Even if these officials vote against it in October, it doesn't necessarily mean they advocate for a more aggressive and longer rate hike cycle. 5. **StoneX:** If rates remain unchanged this time with no dissenting votes, it could weaken market confidence in a December rate hike; one dissenting vote would mean a pause in the moderate hawkish stance; two or more dissenting votes are more likely to be interpreted as temporarily skipping October to reserve room for a December rate hike. 6. **Mitsubishi UFJ:** In its most probable scenario of a "hawkish pause," it is expected that up to three dissenters will support an immediate rate hike. Voting disagreements are expected to be a direct indicator of the FOMC's internal tightening bias.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: Inflation is too high.