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**Geopolitical Conflicts** 1. **US-Iran Conflict:** Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of this year's UN General Assembly, with the US-Iran war considered paramount. Trump and the Iranian president will speak on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Trump has previously stated his openness to meeting with the Iranian president. Attention should be paid to the positions of Iran, Israel, Gulf states, and other relevant countries, as well as whether the US and Iranian presidents will meet. 2. **Russia-Ukraine Conflict:** The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a major focus of this year's General Assembly. Attention should be paid to whether new ceasefire or negotiation initiatives will emerge, how European countries will articulate their positions on Ukraine, and what kind of international support Ukraine hopes to receive. Furthermore, given the limited diplomatic resources of various countries, attention should be paid to how Ukraine will ensure that discussions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict are not overshadowed by the Middle East situation. 3. **Israel-Palestinian Issue:** Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to speak on Wednesday. Palestinian President Abbas will address the UN General Assembly via video for the second consecutive year due to the US visa refusal. Attention should be paid to how Netanyahu uses the UN platform to cultivate an image of a "tough leader" to garner votes in the domestic elections, and whether representatives from multiple countries will again stage a collective walkout. 4. Houthi-Saudi Conflict: The Houthi rebels have recently intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia and seized strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, allowing Iran and its allies to influence two key global chokepoints and further destabilizing the Middle East. Attention should be paid to whether the US will be dragged into the Yemen conflict. Global Supply Chain Issues: 1. Energy Chokepoint Blockage: The simultaneous blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has severely impacted the global energy supply chain. Attention should be paid to whether world leaders will propose specific "maritime coalition" or "energy corridor" plans during the UN General Assembly. 2. **Exacerbating Food Security Crisis:** The disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has exacerbated the food security crisis facing some countries. Attention should be paid to whether the United Nations will promote a "humanitarian fertilizer corridor" circumventing sanctions; this is a key indicator of whether the General Assembly can produce substantial results. 1. **AI Governance:** Two AI conferences will be held on the 23rd: the UN Security Council meeting on artificial intelligence and security, and a high-level AI conference convened by the United States. These two conferences represent completely different governance paths. The Security Council meeting focuses on AI security risks, while the US-hosted meeting emphasizes the AI partnership with the United States. This "division" warrants attention. It is also worth noting that AI giants in the United States that have called for a "slowdown in AI development" are facing conspiracy charges. UN Secretary-General Re-election1. Guterres's term enters countdown:The term of current UN Secretary-General António Guterres will end on December 31 this year. The current suspense lies in whether the five permanent members of the Security Council can reach an agreement on the candidate, or whether it will fall into a deadlock due to veto politics.

According to foreign media reports on the 21st, European countries facing aviation fuel shortages due to the US-Iraq war have significantly increased their imports of aviation kerosene from South Korea. Data from commodity data analysis company Kpler shows that since September, South Korea's aviation kerosene exports to Europe have averaged 129,000 barrels per day, the highest level in nearly four years since October 2022. Following the outbreak of the Middle East war, European aviation kerosene supply has dropped to about half of its original level, and European countries had previously increased imports from Nigeria, the United States, and Canada. Global energy consultancy Energy Aspects predicts that the European aviation kerosene supply deficit will reach an average of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. During the same period, the United States is expected to experience a supply surplus of 18,000 barrels per day, and the Asia-Pacific region is expected to experience a supply surplus of 419,000 barrels per day. Analysts say that the price difference between the European and Asian markets is driving South Korean refineries to expand exports to Europe. Meanwhile, Europe's own aviation kerosene inventories are falling to low levels.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on the 20th, with just over a month until the Israeli election, a large number of AI-generated ads and posts attacking opponents have emerged on Israeli political social media. Data from the Open University of Israel (OUI) research project "Ze Be AI" shows that about one-eighth of the Israeli election-related posts published on social media in recent months were generated or modified by AI.

Trump will meet with New York City Mayor Mamdani at 4:10 p.m. ET on Monday.

Trump will meet with French President Macron in New York at 5:35 p.m. ET on Monday.

US President Trump: Oil prices were much higher during Biden's presidency than during Trump's. The same is true for almost all other prices.

Renowned tech analyst Pu Deyu: NAND demand is significantly stronger than expected, primarily driven by demand for eSSDs (enterprise-grade solid-state drives), as US cloud service providers are actively expanding their AI infrastructure. He projects sequential growth of 21%, 17%, and 15% for Q3, Q4, and Q1, 2026, respectively, compared to previous forecasts of 18%, 2%, and 0%. US hyperscale cloud vendor inventories are expected to decline further, potentially continuing to decrease into Q4 2026. July inventory levels were approximately 14 weeks, while the normal level is around 15 weeks. Supply remains restrained, with NAND bit production projected to grow by 15%, 21%, and 20% year-over-year in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.

SoftBank Group issued $10 billion and $1 billion in European bonds to invest in OpenAI.

DownDetector said 15,602 U.S. users had reported issues with Facebook as of 9:00 a.m. local time.

DownDetector, a network monitoring website, reported that as of 9 a.m. local time, 15,602 users in the United States had reported problems with Facebook.

Mark Pfifler, a Republican strategist and former White House and national security official, said that Iran and the United States remain willing to reach an agreement. In an interview, he stated, "Sometimes, the key to diplomacy lies in what conditions have been removed from the negotiating table." He pointed out that when Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei reiterated his demands for negotiations with the United States, he repeatedly emphasized ending the blockade, unfreezing funds, and ceasing attacks. However, he did not mention reparations or reconstruction funds. This gives me a concrete indication that, despite the continued strong rhetoric from both sides, the pressure exerted by the United States on Iran is having some effect. It also suggests that both sides are still looking for room for negotiation in the coming weeks.

ANZ Bank: Expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both September and November.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index opened 18.90 points lower, or 0.22%, at 8712.3 on Monday, September 21.

Goldman Sachs: If Persian Gulf LNG exports do not improve significantly this winter, TTF and JKM prices are expected to reach €105/MWh and $35/MMBtu by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs: It expects TTF and LNG prices to rise to over €100/MWh and $35/MMBtu respectively this winter.

According to Nikkei: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approval rating remains unchanged at 62%.

The UK's Rightmove average house asking price index fell 0.8% year-on-year in September, compared with a previous reading of -1.00%.

The UK's Rightmove average asking price index rose 0.7% month-on-month in September, compared to -2.00% previously.

According to US officials and sources, US President Trump will hold a series of bilateral meetings with leaders of several countries during his attendance at the UN General Assembly this week. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Walz previously stated that Trump is expected to arrive in New York on Monday afternoon local time, attend a "political event" at Trump Tower that evening, and address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday morning. Walz indicated that Trump will emphasize his administration's performance in "facing complex issues around the world" and discuss "the importance of ensuring Iran never possesses nuclear weapons." US media reports also indicate that Trump is willing to meet with Iranian President Pezechzian during the UN General Assembly; Israeli media reports that Trump will not meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during the General Assembly. The main meetings are scheduled as follows:1. Ukrainian President Zelensky – Zelensky himself stated on Sunday that he had agreed to meet with Trump in New York, and sources say the meeting is expected to take place on Tuesday.2. British Prime Minister Burnham – Trump will hold a separate bilateral meeting with him on Tuesday, marking the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders. 3. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – Also scheduled to meet with Trump on Tuesday. 4. Gulf Cooperation Council Leaders – Trump will attend the council's leaders' meeting on Tuesday, expected to discuss the conflict with Iran, followed by a reception for the council. 5. Venezuelan Interim President Rodríguez – Trump will meet with him face-to-face for the first time during the reception. Rodríguez received support from Washington after the US military ousted former President Maduro. 6. Iraqi Prime Minister Zaidi – According to Iraqi media reports last week, Trump will meet with him sometime during the UN General Assembly.

The three major U.S. stock index futures opened slightly higher on Monday.