News

1. Iranian state television actor Dariosh Al-Jamand has passed away. 2. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are blocking Russian goods from being transported to Iran by rail. 3. The Israeli regime has occupied Mount Ali Taher, a strategic location in southern Lebanon. (The above news is from Iran's Mehr News Agency)

Market sources indicate that several senior British and European officials are participating in talks between Trump's special envoy and Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kyiv. British National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell is also involved, along with national security advisors from other European countries.

An analyst stated that Iran's latest attack on US warships was a "calculated escalation." Defense analyst Wolfgang Pustätz stated that Iran was not merely targeting two ordinary warships; they were aiming at a guided-missile destroyer, and more importantly, an aircraft carrier—a core pillar of US military operations against Iran. Although the US military successfully evaded the attack, it was still a "lucky opportunity" for Iran. Had the attack succeeded, the US would have had to discuss "how to continue this war, and whether it should continue at all." This is a very, very significant development, so US retaliation is not surprising.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: The Strait of Hormuz sees an average daily oil throughput of 9 million barrels.

1. **Monday:** ① Data: Germany's July seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month; UK's August Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month; Switzerland's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index, Eurozone's final Q2 GDP annual rate, Eurozone's final Q2 seasonally adjusted employment rate; China's August foreign exchange reserves. ② Holiday: US and Canadian stock markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day; gold, silver, and oil trading ended early. 2. **Tuesday:** ① Data: Japan's July trade balance; Germany's July seasonally adjusted trade balance; France's July trade balance; US August NFIB small business confidence index, US August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; China's August trade balance in US dollars. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: China's August CPI year-on-year rate; France's July industrial production month-on-month rate; US ADP employment change for the week ending August 22. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction (to September 9) - winning bid rate, US 10-year Treasury auction (to September 9) - bid-to-cover ratio, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4; Germany's final August CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate (to September 10), Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate (to September 10); US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, US August PPI year-on-year rate, US August PPI month-on-month rate, US August existing home sales (annualized), US July wholesale sales month-on-month rate, US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending September 4; China's August M2 money supply year-on-year rate. ②Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; OPEC releases monthly oil market report; Apple holds fall product launch event themed "Shine Brighter"; ECB President Lagarde delivers speech at official Bundesbank dinner; TSMC releases August 2026 revenue report; ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference [simultaneous interpretation] 5. Friday: ①Data: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4, US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4, US EIA strategic petroleum reserves for the week ending September 4; UK July three-month GDP month-on-month rate, UK July manufacturing output month-on-month rate, UK July seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK July industrial production month-on-month rate; Swiss August consumer confidence index; US August unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, US August seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, US August seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, US August unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate; US September one-year inflation rate expectations preliminary value, US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value. ②Events: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin; IEA releases monthly oil market report. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 11. ② Event: Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

US President Trump: The imbalance between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar is unacceptable. This situation has persisted for years, but it can no longer be tolerated!

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: If I had to guess, I would say that natural gas prices are more likely to fall than rise.

After six months of market turmoil and pushing the Gulf region to the brink of a wider war, the situation may be turning against Iran. According to Iranian insiders and regional sources, after years of sanctions, Iran is now facing one of the most severe "squeezes" in the history of the Islamic Republic. The US naval blockade and harsher sanctions are curbing Iranian oil exports, restricting its access to foreign exchange, and exposing growing tensions in the economy. This has led US and regional officials to believe that increasing economic pressure can force Iran to allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Their assessment is based on a simple calculation: the economic losses Iran suffers are greater than it can inflict. Efforts to curb oil exports have already slashed Iranian government revenue, and Iran's attempts to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have not triggered the global economic shock it hoped for. Energy markets have adjusted, and alternative supplies continue to flow. Iranian analyst Arash Aziz stated that the balance of power has slightly shifted against Iran, which is losing some leverage over the Strait of Hormuz because it cannot completely blockade the strait, and the US maritime blockade "is indeed hitting Iran." Aziz said Iran had anticipated that the strait disruption would have a significant impact on the global economy and force the US back to the negotiating table. However, this has not actually happened. Other countries have adapted, revealing Iran's limited ability to inflict economic pain on the region and wider. Regional sources say it is unclear whether this pressure will force Iran to make concessions. While Iran has not achieved its desired outcome, it has not shown any clear signs of abandoning its demands. However, sources say a new solution to the deadlock is currently being discussed between mediators and Iran.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: The European security advisor will participate in talks on Sunday in Kyiv with the US envoy to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The meeting has begun.

Former Austrian military attaché Wolfgang Putztey stated that the ongoing threat between the US and Iran currently appears to be more of a psychological war, unlikely to lead to large-scale military action in the Middle East. He believes Iran has no intention of directly engaging in war with its Arab neighbors, nor of striking targets in Europe. Overall, the current statements from both sides are more of an information war than a sign of a major military escalation. A key turning point for a US-Iran war will be the November midterm elections, and Trump is unlikely to "give up" on the conflict. After the congressional elections, we will certainly see a decision-making point in some sense. This will determine President Trump's freedom of action and may also mean that he will attempt to take some concrete actions to undermine Iranian resistance.

U.S. Central Command: As of September 6, the U.S. military has redirected 92 merchant ships, disabled 3, and boarded and inspected 2 to ensure strict compliance with regulations.

U.S. Central Command: A U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighter jet patrols regional waters. Central Command forces continue to maintain a maritime blockade against Iran.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center reports that Lowell is currently moving northwest, and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters have determined that Lowell remains a Category 3 hurricane.

OPEC+ stated that no adjustments were made to oil production quotas at Sunday's meeting.

Lebanese President: We urge the United States and the international community to take action to stop these Israeli aggressions and hold them accountable.

According to sources, the national security advisors of Britain, France, and Germany have arrived in Kyiv to prepare for talks with the US envoy.

According to TASS, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Western accusations of Moscow's involvement in the Leipzig drone attack in Germany are essentially the beginning of a real war.

The Ukrainian military stated that they attacked Russia's Ryazan oil refinery last night.

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iran's Minister of Economy and Finance arrived in Moscow today, Sunday, for bilateral and multilateral consultations. His schedule in Moscow includes a meeting with the Russian Finance Minister, consultations within the framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and participation in a meeting of Iranian and Russian business leaders.

According to data from the UK National Grid, the Toness 1 nuclear reactor in the UK has been shut down.