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Análisis y Formación
According to HFI Research, we have written extensively since the beginning of 2026 about the “golden opportunities” we see in Colombia and Venezuela. At the beginning of the year, the arrest of former Venezuelan President Maduro surprised the market. Now, President Trump has announced that the US has reached an agreement with Venezuela on certain oil production blocks. Details have not yet been released, but recent press releases suggest that some major players are about to reclaim substantial production blocks (Chevron is clearly the first candidate). In Colombia, the president, who took office on August 7, has wasted no time and quickly set about restructuring the national oil company (Ecopetrol). The Colombian Ministry of Finance has convened an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on September 15, after which the Colombian president will be able to nominate six new board members, thus gaining full control of the board, following expected amendments to the company's articles of association. As the Colombian Ministry of Finance stated in a post: “The national government will submit a shortlist of nine candidates for the Ecopetrol board, with a clear mission: to increase production, regain trust, and advance the energy transition.” To achieve this mission, Ecopetrol will need external capital to increase production in older oil fields, unlock new reserves, and improve efficiency. This cannot be achieved on its own, so it is effectively an invitation for independent producers to join. From a geopolitical perspective, Colombia and Venezuela remain two of the most undervalued regions in the energy sector (and still are).
The Japanese government said on Friday that allowing free imports of fresh potatoes from the United States would pose a risk of introducing 21 types of pests and diseases. Since the U.S. demanded in 2020 that Japan fully lift its ban on U.S. potato imports, officials from Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries have been compiling a list of pests and diseases that need to be included in risk management discussions. Japan currently bans the import of fresh potatoes to prevent the invasion of harmful insects and microorganisms, with the sole exception of potatoes used for processing into potato chips. The draft list released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries includes the difficult-to-eradicate Pale Potato Cyst Nematode. This nematode was first confirmed to have broken out in Hokkaido in 2015, and control efforts are still ongoing. The list includes 14 pests, with the remainder being fungi and microorganisms. The central government will hold briefings for producers and local government officials starting in September. After gathering feedback, a formal list will be released that same month. Based on the formal list, Japanese officials will begin discussing import quarantine measures. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will consult with U.S. quarantine authorities to jointly develop specific measures to prevent the introduction of pests and diseases. The time required to develop such measures varies depending on the crop type and production location, and usually takes several years.
According to the Wall Street Journal: U.S. officials say that U.S. Patriot and ATACMS missile stocks in Europe have fallen below critical levels.
Venezuelan interim president Rodriguez: This (oil agreement with the United States) will bring $209 billion to the national treasury.
Venezuela's interim president: We have reached a historic agreement with the United States that will have a significant impact on the revival of our country.
US President Trump: The deal we reached with Venezuela is the largest oil deal in world history to date!
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Trading Terminology
refer to the state of a trade after a trader has entered the market. Traders can Buy or Sell to enter the market.
Closed Positions:
refers to executing a security transaction that is the exact opposite of an open position, thereby nullifying it and eliminating the initial exposure.
Close Out：
When your account's Equity reaches 50% of your Used margin , the system will automatically close out positions. The system will start closing positions that have the highest loss until the ratio is greater than 50%.
IMPORTANT NOTE: You should set “stop loss” and “take profit” in time when trading.
How to calculate profit and loss?
For example, you buy 100 AUDUSD with a pip value of 0.01 USD and required margin of $5.
The opening price is 0.78260 and the closing price is 0.78220.
Their price difference in pips is -4 pips [(0.78220-0.78260)/0.0001 - The pip for AUDUSD is the fourth decimal point, ie. 0.0001].
Hence, the profit/loss (P/L) is -$0.04.
What is Margin Level?
● Margin level is a mathematical equation that effectively tells the trader how much of their funds are available for new trades
● The higher the margin level, the higher the amount of cash available to trade
● The lower the margin level, the lower the amount of cash available to trade and the account could be subject to a margin call.
● Monitoring margin level is important for managing your account. If it falls to 100% the system will not allow you to open new positions, and in the case it falls further, some of your positions may be forcibly closed. You can raise it, either by adding funds to your account to increase equity or by closing some positions to reduce used margin.
If your margin level is getting close to 50%, you are in danger of having some of your positions forcibly closed. When the margin level is less than or equal to 50%, the positions with the greater losses will be closed out until the margin level rises above 50%. The positions opened by coupons will not be influenced and hence coupon trades will not be closed out.
How is margin level calculated?
It is calculated by the following formula:
Margin level = (equity ÷ used margin) × 100%
If you don't have any trades open, your margin level will be “- “
Margin level example
If your account equity is $8,000 and your used margin is $2,000 then your margin level is 400%.
Important Economic Data - Released Dates
At 15:30 (GMT +2) on the first Friday of every month
GDP of major currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, AUD, NZD & JPY):
Released on a quarterly basis.
CPI of major currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, AUD, NZD & JPY) :
Released monthly.
U.S. Initial jobless Claims :
At 15:30 (GMT +2) every Thursday
U.S. Durable Goods Orders :
At 14:30 (GMT + 2) once a month
FOMC Minutes:
The Committee meets eight times a year, approximately once every 6 weeks
EIA:
At 17:30 (GMT + 2) every Wednesday
OPEC meeting:
Twice in a year, usually in June and December
Candlestick Chart
1. Bullish Candle: When the close is higher than the open (usually green or white).
2. Bearish Candle: When the close is lower than the open (usually red or black).
There are three main parts to a candlestick:
1. Upper Shadow: The vertical line between the high of the day and the close (bullish candle) or open (bearish candle).
2. Real Body: The difference between the open and close; colored portion of the candlestick.
3. Lower Shadow: The vertical line between the low of the day and the open (bullish candle) or close (bearish candle).
Candlestick Patterns
1.White Marubozu
Formation: When the opening price equals the bottom price and the closing price equals the top price. The body colour is white or green without shadows.
Meaning: The buyers maintained control of the price - Bullish.
Forecast: It indicates the continuation at the end of an uptrend or a reversal at the end of a downtrend.
2.Black Marubozu
Formation: When the opening price equals the top price and the closing price equals the bottom price. The body colour is black or red without shadows.
Meaning: The sellers maintained control of the price - Bearish
Forecast: It indicates the continuation at the end of a downtrend or a reversal at the end of an uptrend.
3.Closing Black Marubozu
Formation: When the closing price equals the top price and no lower shadow is created.
Meaning: The sellers took control of the price - Bearish.
Forecast: It indicates the continuation at the end of a downtrend or a reversal at the end of an uptrend.
4.Hammer
Formation: Small candlestick body with a long lower shadow and a short or absent upper shadow.
Meaning: The buyers were able to overcome the selling pressure and close near the open - Bullish.
Forecast: It indicates a reversal after a downtrend or a support level which requires further bullish confirmation.
5.Shooting Star
Formation: Small candlestick body with a long upper shadow and a short or absent lower shadow.
Meaning: The sellers were able to overcome the buying pressure - Bearish.
Forecast: It indicates a reversal after an uptrend or a resistance level which requires further bearish confirmation.
6.Spinning Tops
Formation: Small candlestick body with a long upper shadow and a long lower shadow.
Meaning: Neither the sellers or the buyers were able to take over - Neutral.
Forecast: If it forms during an uptrend, it could mean that not many buyers are left and a possible reversal might occur. If it forms during a downtrend, it could mean that not many sellers are left and a possible reversal might occur.
7.Doji
Formation: Opening and closing prices are effectively equal with a long upper shadow and a long lower shadow.
Meaning: Neither the sellers or the buyers were able to take over - Neutral.
Forecast: It indicates indecision and is often formed during resting periods after a significant move either higher or lower.
The above are some types of candlestick patterns that can be formed. The different types can be categorised as single, double and triple candlestick formations. Please always take market conditions and price action signal into consideration before acting on a single candlestick pattern.
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