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Ali Motahari, the 10th Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated in an interview with the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) that, considering the various problems currently facing the United States, it is more likely that the US will ultimately choose to reach an agreement with Iran and accept many of the conditions proposed by Iran. He added that Trump will not launch an attack on Iran before the US election. He further stated that he believes the possibility of the US launching an attack on Iran after the election is also very low.

Market news: British Prime Minister Burnham has ruled out the possibility of an early general election.

1. USD/SHER - Opposition victory and market perception of improved foreign relations and institutional risks: The shekel may receive support. - Netanyahu's continued rule or prolonged deadlock in forming a government: The exchange rate may be under pressure. - JPMorgan's scenario analysis on August 27 estimated that an opposition victory would correspond to a shekel appreciation of approximately 2%-3%; a Netanyahu victory would correspond to a shekel depreciation of approximately 3%; a broad coalition government and prolonged political uncertainty could result in a roughly flat exchange rate. - Key risk: This scenario estimate was released in August. The shekel has already appreciated significantly, and if the outcome meets market expectations, a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario may occur. 2. Israeli Stocks or Related ETFs - Local stocks may benefit if the election results in a clearer ruling coalition and a lower political risk premium. - Short-term volatility may increase if the outcome is unclear and the risk of a re-election rises. - Historical research from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange shows that stock markets tend to be weaker before deadlocked elections, but the return gap between different election results usually narrows gradually in the months following the election. - Key risks: The Israeli stock market has risen approximately 130% since October 2023. Election gains may be partially reflected in prices; the performance of US tech stocks, the artificial intelligence industry, and global markets may also outweigh the election's impact. >3. Israeli Government Bonds- Bonds may find support and yields may decline if political risk premiums decrease and fiscal policy becomes clearer. - Long-duration bonds may come under pressure if government formation becomes difficult and defense spending and deficit pressures continue to widen. - Investment managers at United Investment Company say they are buying Israeli bonds and are optimistic about their fundamentals. - Key risks: Bond prices are also affected by US Treasury yields, inflation, central bank policy, and Israel's fiscal situation. Israel's public debt is approaching 70% of GDP, and the budget deficit is projected to be around 4.5% of GDP; the direction of bonds cannot be judged solely based on the election. 4. Markets Outside Israel-TT International states that regional tensions could ease if the opposition wins or the Netanyahu government is weakened, thus benefiting Lebanese bonds. -Key Risks: Lebanese bonds are subject to credit, liquidity, restructuring, and geopolitical risks. Even if regional tensions ease, it does not necessarily mean that the Lebanese government's debt repayment capacity will improve; it cannot be simply used as a hedge against the Israeli election.

Saudi Aramco shares rose 1.2% in early Saudi trading.

According to a report by Lebanon's Al-Akhbar on October 26, Iranian-Israeli analyst Mansour Barati stated that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wins the election again, the military confrontation and state of war between Israel and Iran will continue. Conversely, if the opposition comes to power, the confrontation may shift from the "red zone" of direct military conflict to the "gray zone" dominated by covert security operations—that is, covert operations replacing full-scale war. Barati pointed out that Netanyahu has made confronting Iran his most important campaign issue, even implying in his campaign that Israel's enemies, especially Iran, want him to lose the election and support their political opponents to win. Barati also stated that Netanyahu has listed "pushing regime change in Iran within the next two years" as one of his main campaign promises. Regarding US President Trump's public support for Netanyahu, calling him a partner in "getting the job done," Barati believes that Netanyahu's continued rule means that the existential confrontation between Israel and Iran will continue, especially during the remaining two years of Trump's presidency.

At midday closing, domestic futures contracts showed mixed results. Asphalt rose nearly 7%, methanol hit its daily limit, fuel oil, polypropylene, and propylene rose over 5%, with polypropylene averaging nearly 5% higher for the month. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose nearly 4%, and plastics rose over 3%. On the downside, caustic soda fell over 5%, apples and red dates fell over 3%, live hogs fell nearly 3%, soybean meal and nickel fell over 2%, polysilicon fell nearly 2%, and silver fell over 1%.