The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision in ten minutes.

1. November 2024 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting due to cooling inflation and a weakening job market. 2. November 2022 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting due to severe inflation following the pandemic. 3. November 2018 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to inflationary pressures and continued economic expansion. 4. November 2008 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting due to emergency easing during the financial crisis. 5. November 2004 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to interest rate normalization following the dot-com bubble. 6. November 1998 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to financial pressures caused by the Russian debt crisis. 7. November 1992 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting due to a weak economy and the need to stimulate growth. 8. November 1984 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to an unstable economic recovery. 9. November 1980 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting to combat severe double-digit inflation. 10. November 1978 Midterm Elections: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to rising inflationary pressures.

**Resolution Statement** 1. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to press the "pause button" on interest rate hikes. If it chooses to raise rates, it would be another rare pre-election policy move. 2. Whether the vote is unanimous (last time it was 12-0) is uncertain. This meeting may see 2 to 3 dissenting votes on a rate hike, with Logan and Hamak being the most likely to support it. 3. The policy statement is expected to remain brief and restrained, emphasizing data dependence. 4. A policy statement focusing on financial stability may be seen as dovish, while heightened concerns about inflation and energy price spillovers may be seen as hawkish. 5. Whether the wording of the statement is adjusted is also important. If it retains the phrase "returning to the target in a timely manner" or further emphasizes "acting as necessary," it suggests that room for tightening remains. Warsh Press Conference 1. Warsh's press conference is expected to maintain a concise and pragmatic style, offering no clear forward guidance and focusing on an objective presentation of the current situation. 2. Inflation data has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months. Will Warsh reiterate that inflation is too high and that a "faster pace" is needed to bring it back to 2%? 3. How will Warsh explain the decision to hold rates steady in October while maintaining flexibility for policy action in December? 4. The time Warsh allocates to discussing inflation and financial conditions may influence market interpretation. 5. Warsh may be asked to explain what the high and recent decline in US Treasury yields signals. 6. Warsh may be asked to analyze the stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence and how to deal with potential bubbles. 7. Warsh may be asked how the shifting power in Congress after the midterm elections will affect the Federal Reserve's decisions. 8. Share the latest progress on the Federal Reserve's working group reform. 9. The financial security risks posed by uncontrolled artificial intelligence.

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