Technical Analysis: USOIL

Oil price decreased by more than 2%

On Monday, USOIL plummeted by 2% and fell to a 2-week low. Russian crude oil supply was sufficient, putting pressure on oil price.

Urals crude oil exports increased

According to the data provided by Eikon, at least 5100 thousand tons of Urals crude oil was exported to from Russia to Asia through Primorsk port, Ust-Luga port and Novorossiysk port in January. Another 1900 thousand tons of Urals crude oil was expected to be exported to India or China.

The amount of Urals crude oil exported to Asia may reach 7000 thousand tons in January, increasing by 2000 thousand tons from December 2022.

OPEC+ may keep oil production unchanged

The Kremlin said in a statement that the president of Russia Putin and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman held a telephone conference during which they agree to keep oil price stable under the framework of OPEC+ oil producer association. Three OPEC+’ representatives said JMMC may support OPEC+ keeping oil production unchanged this week.

Technically speaking, the market trend is bearish

On the chart f the day, USOIL continued falling. The market trend is bearish in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, MACD went downwards after death cross occurred. This demonstrates that USOIL will fall further. USOIL will decline further if it is capped at the resistance at 80.0.

On the 4-hour chart, USOIL decreased and was prone to fluctuation. The market trend is bearish in the short term. In terms of technical indicators, KDJ went downwards after death cross occurred. This indicates that the market trend is bearish. USOIL will fall further with potential support at 72.4 if it breaks below the support at 74.3.

Key resistance: 80.0, 82.6

Key support: 74.3, 72.4

In summary, Urals crude oil exports surged and Russian oil supply was sufficient, putting pressure on oil price. Investors should focus on JMMC this week.